Democratic nominee holds 6-point edge over GOP rival as election cycle enters homestretch
BY DAN BOYD / ALBUQUERQUE JOURNAL CAPITOL BUREAU
August 30, 2026
SANTA FE — With just over two months until Election Day, Democrat Deb Haaland holds a lead — but not an overwhelming one — over Republican Gregg Hull in New Mexico’s open race for governor, a new Journal Poll found. The poll found 49% of likely voters surveyed said they plan to vote for Haaland, who is seeking to become the first Native American woman elected governor in the nation’s history.
Meanwhile, 43% of voters said they plan to vote for Hull, the former Rio Rancho mayor who would be the first Republican to win a statewide race in New Mexico since 2016.
The remaining 8% of voters surveyed said they had not yet decided on who they would support in the November general election.
“It’s narrower than many people expected, including me,” said Brian Sanderoff, the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc., which conducted the poll.
But he said Haaland is still well-positioned to win in November, citing a national political mood that favors Democrats and the Democratic nominee’s strong support among women and highly educated voters. “Despite the fact the race is closer than expected, Gregg Hull still faces an uphill battle,” Sanderoff said.
Haaland, the former U.S. Interior secretary under President Joe Biden and a former congresswoman, launched her campaign for governor in February 2025.
As of July, she had raised more than $13.8 million in her bid to succeed outgoing Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, with thousands of donations from around the country.
“Yes, I have a lot of $5 and $10 donations from across the country, but I have more contributions within the state of New Mexico than any of my opponents, Democrat or Republican,” she said in an interview before the June primary election.
While Hull has lagged behind his Democratic opponent in terms of fundraising, he has proven adept at capitalizing on a network of connections forged during his 12 years as Rio Rancho’s mayor.
Hull defeated two GOP opponents in the primary election — Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez — despite being outspent in the race. In the process, he emerged largely unscathed by negative attacks.
“Gregg Hull has avoided being labeled as an ideologue, and he has portrayed himself as a bipartisan pragmatist,” Sanderoff said.
If elected, Hull says he would seek to make New Mexico more economically attractive by reducing tax rates, among other proposals.
For her part, Haaland has touted affordability as among her campaign priorities, while vowing to build more affordable housing for New Mexicans and expand tax breaks for low-income families.
A gender gap – and regional swings
While Haaland’s lead in the Journal Poll can be attributed to several factors, strong support among female voters could be the most pivotal.
The Democratic nominee received the support of 54% of women surveyed, compared to 37% who said they planned to vote for Hull.
In contrast, male voters preferred the Republican nominee, though they were more evenly split.
If elected, Haaland would be the third consecutive woman to serve as New Mexico’s governor, as Lujan Grisham was preceded in office by Republican Susana Martinez. Before Martinez, no woman had been elected to the state’s highest office.
Meanwhile, both Haaland and Hull received strong support from voters of their own parties, as 89% of Republicans said they would vote for Hull and 86% of Democrats said they planned to vote for Haaland.
That could make election turnout a key factor, as Sanderoff pointed out that Republicans have voted at a higher clip in recent elections when President Donald Trump is on the ballot.
Among independents, who have seen their ranks swell and now make up more than one-quarter of registered New Mexico voters, Haaland was outpacing her GOP rival. But 19% of independent voters said they had not yet decided who to support.
As in other recent polls, there was also a notable difference among surveyed voters by education level, as voters with a college or graduate degree were far more likely to express support for Haaland than for Hull.
Looking at the race by region, Haaland held a significant advantage over Hull in the Albuquerque metro area and in north central New Mexico, a traditional Democratic stronghold.
But Hull had a lead in other, less populated parts of the state, including in northwest and southern New Mexico, along with the state’s usually conservative east side.
Interestingly, the overall 6-point margin separating Haaland and Hull in the Journal Poll mirrors the final margin of New Mexico’s 2022 gubernatorial race between Lujan Grisham and Republican Mark Ronchetti.
Lujan Grisham won that race but will step down at the end of this year after eight years in office.
Methodology
The Journal Poll was conducted from Aug. 21 through Aug. 28. It is based on a statewide random sample of 516 voters who cast ballots in the 2022 and/ or 2024 general elections, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since January 2025 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.
The total sample of 516 voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.
The sample was stratified by race/ethnicity and county and weighted by party affiliation, gender and education level based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.
All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.
Both cellphone numbers (96%) and landlines (4%) of likely general election voters were used.